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SURVIVAL VIEW

Posted on: Mon 22 Mar 2010

BOTH managers widely accepted that Saturday's trip to Glanford Park was a six-pointer in every sense of the phrase.

Unfortunately for all those fighting Mr Mariner's corner, the points did not make the long trip back to Devon, and instead stayed in Scunthorpe with Mr Adkins.

The result, however out of sync with the performance on the day, leaves Argyle seven points adrift of The Iron.

Had Martyn Woolford's shot not wickedly deflected beyond David Stockdale to put Scunny in front, it would have been four points. Had Yala Bolasie made a truer connection when the ball dropped at his feet in added time, it would have been one.

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'If', 'but' and 'maybe'. The most commonly used words in the relegation zone. Especially when you're still there after 46 games - a fate everyone in green and white is longing not to be the case come May 2.

So can we really complete the great escape?

Let's be honest, things are looking pretty bleak. We have not hit the heights of 21st place since November 7, which makes it 19 weeks in the bottom three. And counting.

But there is still hope.

No one can deny that in recent weeks, performances have improved. After only three goals scored in the first seven games of 2010, Argyle have only failed to score once in the last nine outings, picking up ten points in the process. The home draws with Leicester and Preston in particular could easily have been more fruitful with the aid of better fortune.

Still, we are where we are, as the saying goes, with 34 points from 37 games. In all likelihood, we require five wins from our nine remaining matches to stay up.

Of course, with a tricky trip to Ipswich coming up tomorrow night, things do not look like getting any easier. If Mariner was offered a point from Portman Road now, he would take it, going in to the back-to-back home games against Blackpool and Barnsley.

By all accounts, we must win two of these next three to realistically be in with a chance of survival going into April, and replicating the first half performance against Bristol City in both home games would go a long way to making this possible.

Will a certain Mr Holloway be relishing a hostile return to Home Park with his faltering Blackpool side? Would it not just typify the nature of football if we stole three points from Barnsley, who were cruising to victory at Home Park before the abandonment of November's fixture?

Let's just hope the answers are 'no' and 'yes'. In that order.

Failure to win two of the next three would leave four wins the minimum requirement from the last six. With April's opponents including Champions-elect Newcastle, promotion hopefuls Nottingham Forest and play-off aspirers Doncaster and Middlesbrough, the game would appear to be up.

If survival is to be achieved, the most likely route is via home wins over Blackpool, Barnsley, Middlesbrough and Peterborough on the last day, along with three points over fellow strugglers Watford on their own patch on April 10.

That is the most straightforward path to salvation. Dropped points against any of the above make improbable victories in Ipswich, Doncaster or Nottingham - or at Home Park over Newcastle - an absolute must.

Of course, it is impossible to state with certainty how many wins it will take to keep us up. Last season, Argyle survived with 51 points, while in 2008, Ollie's Leicester City dropped down to League One with 52.

Unfortunately, Saturday's game was our last chance to register three points at the expense of a relegation rival currently above us, with the exception of the trip to Vicarage Road next month.

Studying the bottom half of the table, you would have to accept that Reading's resurgence has steered them well clear of trouble, while Preston, Ipswich and Bristol City are only one more win from safety.

The Neil Warnock factor will ensure QPR comfortably avoid relegation, but perhaps the bottom seven should all be worried.

It is now effectively a mini league from 18th place downwards, between Derby, Watford, Scunthorpe, Sheffield Wednesday, Crystal Palace, Argyle and Peterborough - though The Posh look all but doomed already.

All the talk is about breaking into the top four of the Premier League, but what price on a fourth place finish out of that lot at the end of the campaign?

Both Watford and Crystal Palace still have to face three of the seven teams with relegation fears, and Paul Hart's men are due to travel to Hillsborough on the last day for what could be a winner-takes-all fight to the final whistle of both clubs' seasons.

Sheffield Wednesday also host Watford this week - their only relegation scrap until Palace come to town on May 9, while Scunthorpe's home game tomorrow night against Peterborough is their last clash with a fellow struggler.

The situation is such that it has become impossible not to look out for those above us, but ultimately it will be Argyle alone who decide which level of football the Green Army will be watching next season.

Here's hoping we'll be staying put, as all is not lost just yet.

Mark Perrow

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