HADEN Tye analyses exactly why Argyle WILL finish the season in the final play-off place...
History says it won't go wrong
Argyle have never lost to Shrewsbury by a difference of four goals. Continuing this record would all but ensure the play-offs, as Luton would need to score at least five at sixth-placed Stevenage.
Furthermore, Argyle are unbeaten in their last three games against Shrewsbury, with the Shrews only scoring once in those three games. The 1-1 draw at Greenhous Meadow in August 2011 was the last time Shrewsbury scored against Argyle and since then the Pilgrims have beat the Shrews by the same 1-0 scoreline twice.
What if it does go wrong?
If Argyle did have a bad day at the office, then other fixtures should help the Pilgrims keep their play-off place. Stevenage haven't conceded four goals in a game this season and Luton fans are yet to witness their side score four goals this campaign. It would be a major shock if Luton, who have won just twice in their last 12 won by the four goals that would go half way to providing an eight goal swing.
Why it won't go wrong
Argyle haven't conceded four in the league this season. In fact, on only one occasion have an opposing side put three past Luke McCormick; Hartlepool's 3-2 victory on the last day of January. If Argyle continued their streak of not losing three or more goal difference in a single game this season, then Luton would have to beat Stevenage by a difference of six to overtake the Pilgrims.
Our opposition tomorrow have the chance to be named Sky Bet League 2 champions. If Shrewsbury beat Argyle and Burton fail to win at 18th-placed Cambridge United, then Shrewsbury would be named champions. If Burton draw, then Shrewsbury would win the league by goal difference. If Burton lose, Shrewsbury would finish a point ahead of the Brewers.
This stacks in Argyle's favour, as Shrewsbury don't need to win by an amount of goals and will just be after the three points. Therefore, if Shrewsbury do take the lead they will not want to throw too many men forward and potentially sacrifice the points that would have them crowned champions.
The final day of the season is often a nail-biting encounter, but hopefully Saturday will leave all of the Green Army with a full set of nails. On paper, an eight-goal swing seems improbable, but football isn't played on paper.