Argyle v Wimbledon - Pilgrim Punting
AFC WIMBLEDON are the visitors this Tuesday night to the Theatre of Greens, and we have a few ways of winning you some cash under the lights.
Sometimes, we will look to splash out on a big bet that, if it lands, could win you a pretty penny. (Kelvin Mellor to score first in a 4-1 win - 800/1!!!) However, for this game, we thought we could find a series of small bets that look statistically rather good - and if you get the right score come up, could see them all come in.
You can have a bet on Argyle leading at half-time and to still be winning at full-time. This bet is 13/8 with league sponsors Sky Bet, and would have come up in precisely half - 12 in 24 - of Argyle's home matches this season in all competitions. We are 11/8 to simply be winning at the 45 minute mark - something we have done on 15 of 24 occasions at Home Park.
Staying with stats, did you that the most common result at Home Park this season has been a 2-0 home victory? Argyle have won by that scoreline on five occasions, with the next most frequent results being 3-0 victories and 1-1 draws, each featuring four times.
Wimbledon have lost three times away from home by a score of 2-0, so it may be worth backing that at 6/1 with Sky Bet. 3-0 to Argyle is priced at 12/1. If you are feeling slightly less positive, then note that the Dons' most frequent score on the road is 1-1, which they have done on four occasions, betting on that score at 5/1 may seem reasonable.
Of Argyle's 14 home victories this season, nine have been by a margin of two or more goals. You may, then, fancy the goal handicap bet of Argyle at -1 at a price of 21/10.
Argyle players have scored the first goal in a home game 17 times out of 24, with - unsurprisingly - Lewis Alessandra and Reuben Reid leading the way, having notched the first goal five times each. Reuben is 7/2 to score first against the Dons, with Lewi at 9/2. If you want to factor it up, then 2-0, with Reid to score first is 17/1, with Lewi getting the opener in a 2-0 win priced at 22/1.
Finally, stats fans, we have kept clean sheets in 20 of our 42 Sky Bet League 2 fixtures this term - with 12 of those coming at home. Back Argyle to keep a clean sheet against Wimbledon at 13/8.
So: Argyle to win 2-0, winning at half-time, keeping a clean sheet, with Reuben or Lewi to score first? That will do very nicely.